ETH is currently trading at $2,054–$2,078, roughly $554–$578 above the $1,500 threshold with 6 days until resolution. Polymarket prediction data shows only a 3.6% combined probability of ETH falling below $1,500 by November 17, and all major price forecasts predict ETH will remain between $1,790 and $2,175. The 99% probability reflects that ETH would need to crash approximately 27% in six days to breach the target.