Will a flying train exist by 2035?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick2.5%$0.03
- No97.5%$0.98
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
No flying train prototype exists as of October 2026; MagLev-Cobra is in testing phases without confirmed 2035 deployment, while ground-based maglev trains in China and Japan remain non-operational or scheduled post-2035. The 3% reflects slim odds that a functional flying train—defined as airborne or ground-effect operation—will achieve commercial existence within nine years.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-05T23:36:51.815Z and at or before 2035-12-31T21:00:00.000Z, credible evidence confirms that at least one flying train has achieved a verified operational flight or a publicly demonstrated crewed test flight — meaning the vehicle physically departed from a surface and traveled through open air under its own propulsion, carrying at least one person or a functional passenger payload. - "No": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-05T23:36:51.815Z and at or before 2035-12-31T21:00:00.000Z, no flying train meeting the definition in Clarifications has achieved such a verified flight. Clarifications: - "Flying train" means a multi-car or rail-derived vehicle designed to carry multiple passengers that physically becomes airborne and travels through open air (not merely levitating above a guideway on a track, as with maglev or hyperloop systems). The vehicle must be publicly acknowledged by its developer or confirmed by independent credible reporting. - The qualifying event window opens strictly after 2026-10-05T23:36:51.815Z and closes at or before 2035-12-31T21:00:00.000Z.
Dec 31, 2035, 9:00 PM UTC