Will Pedro Sánchez win the Spanish general election on Nov 29, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes4.5%$0.05
- No95.5%$0.96
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
All recent polls show the PP leading by 6-8 points with 32-33% to PSOE's 25-26%, projecting PP-Vox to win an absolute majority in 176+ seats while PSOE falls to around 100-110 seats. Sánchez would need to win outright to remain PM, but forecasting models give him only a 1% probability of victory with fewer than 46 days until the election.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-07T21:34:29.141Z and at or before 2026-11-30T23:00:00.000Z, the official preliminary or final results of the 29 November 2026 Spanish general election — as certified by the Junta Electoral Central or the Spanish Ministry of the Interior — show that PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español) has won the largest share of seats in the Congress of Deputies and Pedro Sánchez has been announced or confirmed as the candidate to form a government or has received the mandate to seek investiture as Prime Minister. - "No": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-07T21:34:29.141Z and at or before 2026-11-30T23:00:00.000Z, the official preliminary or final results show that PSOE did not win the largest share of seats in the Congress of Deputies, or that another party's candidate — not Pedro Sánchez — has been designated to form a government, or if the election is officially postponed or cancelled such that no result is declared before the market's settlement time. Clarifications: - "Winning the election" is interpreted as PSOE finishing first in seats in the Congress of Deputies and Pedro Sánchez being positioned as the leading candidate to form a government; a PSOE plurality without Sánchez as the designated candidate does not satisfy "Yes". - The assessment window runs strictly after 2026-10-07T21:34:29.141Z and at or before 2026-11-30T23:00:00.000Z; any official result or designation published within that window is qualifying.
Nov 28, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC