Will Carles Puigdemont return to Spain by end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes63.7%$0.64
- No36.3%$0.36
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Forecast reasoning
Arrest warrants lifted October 6-19 and amnesty applied; Puigdemont's lawyer confirmed return "more or less guaranteed" and Puigdemont stated October 15 his return is "irreversible"; Catalan police negotiating logistics with plans for him in Girona by Christmas, though he delayed past November elections.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if credible reporting confirms that Carles Puigdemont has physically entered Spanish territory strictly after 2026-10-22T11:42:09.951Z and at or before 2027-01-01T07:00:00.000Z, and has remained present (i.e., has not immediately departed or been reported to have returned to exile). - "No": Wins if no credible reporting confirms that Carles Puigdemont physically entered and remained in Spanish territory during the window defined above. Clarifications: - "Return to Spain" means physical presence on Spanish soil, not a brief transit, a virtual appearance, or a legal/political development. A brief incursion followed by an immediate departure (as occurred in August 2024) does not satisfy the "Yes" condition.
Dec 31, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC