“Will the Falcon 9 carrying NASA's Northrop Grumman CRS-25 (Cygnus NG-25) lift off on or before Dec 1, 2026 23:59 UTC?” on Delphi

Will the Falcon 9 carrying NASA's Northrop Grumman CRS-25 (Cygnus NG-25) lift off on or before Dec 1, 2026 23:59 UTC?

TechForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yesyour pick57.8%$0.58
No42.3%$0.42

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

NASA targets November 29, 2026 at 15:49 UTC for liftoff, well before the December 1 deadline. Falcon 9 Block 5 has a 99.8% success rate across 645 flights. The 42% "No" probability reflects residual risk from weather delays, technical issues, or schedule slips within the 19-day window.