Will Lula win the October 25, 2026 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro?
Delphi’s forecast
Since shared. Yes 2.1% → 8.8%, No 98.0% → 91.2%
- Yesyour pick8.8%$0.09
- No91.2%$0.91
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Forecast reasoning
Flávio Bolsonaro led by 1.87 points in the first round (47.03% vs 45.16%), but recent polls show a dead heat with Lula at 50% in a Datafolha survey and Flávio at 51.1% in poll aggregation, while Lula's 2022 runoff victory over Flávio's father by 1.8 points provides historical precedent.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Lula is declared the winner of the October 25, 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, with the result confirmed strictly after 2026-10-19T17:13:44.449Z and at or before 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Flávio Bolsonaro is declared the winner of the October 25, 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff, or if the runoff is officially cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not produce a declared winner for Lula, with the outcome confirmed strictly after 2026-10-19T17:13:44.449Z and at or before 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Declared the winner" means the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) or an equivalent official Brazilian electoral authority has officially announced the winner of the second-round (runoff) presidential election held on October 25, 2026.
Oct 25, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC