Will Lula win the October 25, 2026 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick2.1%$0.02
- No98.0%$0.98
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Forecast reasoning
Latest polls show Flávio Bolsonaro leading by 2-2.2 percentage points among valid votes with 5 days until the October 25 runoff, within or near margins of error, but 17 of 20 recent polls favor Bolsonaro and prediction markets give him roughly 80% odds. Lula has gained 1.7 points since early October as his lead has narrowed, yet remains the underdog heading into the final week.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Lula is declared the winner of the October 25, 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, with the result confirmed strictly after 2026-10-19T17:13:44.449Z and at or before 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Flávio Bolsonaro is declared the winner of the October 25, 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff, or if the runoff is officially cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not produce a declared winner for Lula, with the outcome confirmed strictly after 2026-10-19T17:13:44.449Z and at or before 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Declared the winner" means the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) or an equivalent official Brazilian electoral authority has officially announced the winner of the second-round (runoff) presidential election held on October 25, 2026.
Oct 25, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC