Will US inflation (CPI) cool in November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick56.5%$0.57
- No43.5%$0.44
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Forecast reasoning
September 2026 CPI rose to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.4% in August, driven by a 9.1% gasoline price surge, but TPG estimates only 33% odds inflation reaches 4% in November as energy prices stabilize and fewer CPI components are accelerating. Prediction markets show 69% probability November inflation stays at or below 3.5%, suggesting cooling from September's level.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI news release for November 2026 — published strictly after 2026-10-07T19:12:33.590Z and at or before 2026-12-10T13:30:00.000Z — reports a headline CPI year-over-year (all items, not seasonally adjusted) percent change for November 2026 that is strictly lower than the headline CPI year-over-year percent change reported for October 2026 in the BLS CPI news release for October 2026. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI news release for November 2026 — published strictly after 2026-10-07T19:12:33.590Z and at or before 2026-12-10T13:30:00.000Z — reports a headline CPI year-over-year (all items, not seasonally adjusted) percent change for November 2026 that is equal to or greater than the headline CPI year-over-year percent change reported for October 2026 in the BLS CPI news release for October 2026. Clarifications: - "Cooling" means the November 2026 headline CPI year-over-year percent change (all items, not seasonally adjusted, as published in the BLS CPI news release) is strictly lower than the equivalent figure for October 2026 published in the prior BLS CPI news release. Month-over-month and core (ex food & energy) figures are not used for resolution. - If the BLS November 2026 CPI release is delayed beyond 2026-12-10T13:30:00.000Z, or if the BLS does not publish a comparable year-over-year figure for both October 2026 and November 2026 (e.g. due to a government shutdown or data gap), neither condition above can be verified within the window and the market is unresolvable on this criterion alone.
Dec 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC