Will the median on-demand B300 GPU rental rate per hour drop by 50% or more below its October 7, 2026 level by end of 2029?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes61.0%$0.61
- No39.0%$0.39
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
B300 median rental rates stood at $8.69–$9.50/hour in early October 2026, requiring a drop to $4.35–$4.75/hour by end of 2029 to resolve Yes. Historical data shows some providers already offering rates 44% below median, and one provider raised prices 55% between June and October 2026, suggesting volatile but upward pressure recently that makes a 50% median decline over three years moderately unlikely.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the median on-demand NVIDIA B300 GPU rental rate per hour, measured across all providers with an active, in-stock on-demand B300 listing as tracked by getdeploying.com, falls to $4.575 or below at any point strictly after 2026-10-07T21:40:53.149Z and at or before 2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the median on-demand NVIDIA B300 GPU rental rate per hour does not reach $4.575 or below at any point strictly after 2026-10-07T21:40:53.149Z and at or before 2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The baseline is $9.15 per GPU per hour, the median on-demand B300 price recorded on October 7, 2026 by getdeploying.com across 13 providers. A 50% drop from this baseline yields the threshold of $4.575 per GPU per hour. - "On-demand" pricing means publicly listed, non-spot, non-reserved, non-committed rental rates payable without upfront commitment; spot and reserved/committed rates are excluded. - "Median" is computed across all providers with an active, in-stock on-demand B300 listing at the time of measurement as reported by getdeploying.com; out-of-stock or delisted configurations are excluded.
Jan 1, 2030, 5:00 AM UTC