Will Bitcoin drop below $10 before the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.1%$0.00
- No99.9%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Bitcoin has not closed below $10 since August 1, 2012, and currently trades at $81,736, requiring a 99.99% crash in 75 days to resolve Yes. Even Bitcoin's worst historical crashes—including 93% in 2011 and 84% in 2018—never approached single digits after 2012.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BTC-USD price on Coinbase trades strictly below $10.00 at any point strictly after 2026-09-29T15:59:08.269Z and at or before 2026-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the BTC-USD price on Coinbase does not trade strictly below $10.00 at any point strictly after 2026-09-29T15:59:08.269Z and at or before 2026-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A price trades "below $10.00" if any executed trade price for BTC-USD on Coinbase is less than $10.00 USD within the window defined above. A single confirmed trade at or above $10.00 does not satisfy "Yes"; every confirmed price must remain at or above $10.00 for "No" to win.
Dec 31, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC