Arsenal started 2026-27 as Opta's favorites at 20.9%, but odds have drifted to 11/2 (15.4%) by mid-October as the season progressed, with ProbGoal's model estimating just 14.1% as of late October. Arsenal reached last season's final but lost to PSG on penalties, and their current unbeaten league phase record hasn't reversed the market's cooling on their chances.