Will the P vs NP problem be solved by Apr 15, 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes0.0%$0.00
- No100.0%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Over 100 claimed proofs have failed scrutiny since 1986, and as of October 2026 the problem remains unsolved with no clear path forward according to the research community. Recent proof attempts in 2024–2026, including Lean-verified claims, have not survived peer review or met the Clay Mathematics Institute's two-year publication requirement. The 178-day timeframe to resolution is far too short for the mathematical consensus-building and validation that would be necessary.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Clay Mathematics Institute formally announces, strictly after 2026-10-15T19:42:49Z and at or before 2027-04-16T03:42:49Z, that it has accepted a valid proof resolving the P vs NP problem (either P = NP or P ≠ NP) and awarded or declared intent to award the associated Millennium Prize. - "No": Wins if no such formal announcement by the Clay Mathematics Institute is made strictly after 2026-10-15T19:42:49Z and at or before 2027-04-16T03:42:49Z. Clarifications: - A preprint, informal claim, or third-party announcement does not constitute resolution; only an official Clay Mathematics Institute statement accepting the proof and recognizing the prize award qualifies. - A proof publicly circulated but still under CMI review within the window does not satisfy the "Yes" condition.
Apr 15, 2027, 7:42 PM UTC