Will the final offensive scoring play of Super Bowl LXI (Feb 14, 2027) be a touchdown (with or without a conversion) or a field goal?
Delphi’s forecast
- Touchdown (with or without conversion)68.5%$0.69
- Field Goal31.5%$0.32
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Touchdowns outnumber field goals nearly 2-to-1 across NFL history, and historical Super Bowl data shows 35 touchdowns versus 10 field goals in final-quarter situations. Only 3 Super Bowls have ended with a game-winning field goal compared to multiple decided by touchdown, establishing a strong base rate favoring touchdown as the final scoring play.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Touchdown (with or without conversion)": Wins if the final offensive scoring play of Super Bowl LXI — occurring strictly after 2026-09-30T16:13:08.063Z and at or before 2027-02-15T05:00:00.000Z — is a touchdown (including any subsequent extra point or two-point conversion attempt, successful or not). - "Field Goal": Wins if the final offensive scoring play of Super Bowl LXI — occurring strictly after 2026-09-30T16:13:08.063Z and at or before 2027-02-15T05:00:00.000Z — is a field goal. Clarifications: - "Offensive scoring play" means any score credited to the offense: a rushing or receiving touchdown, a passing touchdown, or a field goal. Defensive scores (defensive touchdowns, safeties) and special-teams scores (kick/punt return touchdowns) are excluded. If overtime is played, the final offensive scoring play of overtime governs. - The "final" offensive scoring play is the last such play before the final whistle ends regulation or, if applicable, overtime.
Feb 14, 2027, 11:30 PM UTC