Will Mbappé score ≥1 goal vs FC Barcelona on Oct 25, 2026 (90 min + stoppage only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes50.5%$0.51
- No49.5%$0.50
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Forecast reasoning
Mbappé is confirmed to start for Real Madrid and has scored in consecutive matches heading into this El Clásico, averaging nearly one goal per game across his two seasons at the club. Barcelona will be without four key defenders due to injury, while Real Madrid's attack remains largely intact despite missing Vinicius Junior to suspension. The 51% probability reflects that while Mbappé is in excellent form and faces a weakened Barcelona defense, scoring at least one goal in a single 90-minute ...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Kylian Mbappé scores at least one goal for Real Madrid during regulation time (minutes 1–90 plus any added stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootout) in the LaLiga Matchday 10 match FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid at Spotify Camp Nou, with the match having kicked off strictly after 2026-10-24T11:52:57Z and the result confirmed at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if Kylian Mbappé scores zero goals under the same conditions — including if he does not appear in the match — with the result confirmed at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00Z. Clarifications: - Only goals scored in the 90-minute regulation period plus referee-added stoppage time count; goals scored in extra time or a penalty shootout do not count. - If the match is postponed, abandoned, or not played before 2026-10-26T04:00:00Z, both criteria are unresolvable within this window.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC