Will it rain in Los Angeles on Oct 1, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.7%$0.02
- No98.3%$0.98
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts for October 1 show sunny conditions with 0mm precipitation and precipitation chances below 10% throughout the day. October typically sees fewer than 2 rainy days in Los Angeles, making rain unlikely on this specific date.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least 0.01 inches of precipitation is recorded at the Downtown Los Angeles (FHMC1) or Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) NWS observation station during the window strictly after 2026-10-01T07:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-02T07:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if total recorded precipitation at both the Downtown Los Angeles (FHMC1) and Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) NWS observation stations remains below 0.01 inches throughout the window strictly after 2026-10-01T07:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-02T07:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "Rain" is defined as any measurable precipitation of 0.01 inches or more, consistent with the standard NWS trace/measurable threshold. Trace precipitation (less than 0.01 inches) does not satisfy the "Yes" condition. - If the two reference stations report conflicting results (one meets the threshold and one does not), the Downtown Los Angeles (FHMC1) station reading is treated as primary.
Oct 2, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC