Will a coalition not including Likud form the next government in Israel after the Oct 27, 2026 election?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick47.0%$0.47
- No53.0%$0.53
Forecast only. Not tradable.
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Forecast reasoning
Pre-election polls showed the anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc with a 54-seat advantage over Likud's 50, but falling short of the 61-seat majority needed without Arab party support or defectors. Eisenkot explored forming a minority government with Arab parties, though Bennett and Lieberman opposed this strategy, while Lieberman ruled out supporting Netanyahu's coalition. Official results won't be published until November 4, leaving coalition negotiations uncertain over the next six months.
