Predict something else

Will Microsoft publicly attribute its November 2026 outage to a faulty update or configuration change by Nov 30, 2026?

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Delphi’s forecast

  • Yesyour pick58.5%$0.59
  • No41.5%$0.42
Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Microsoft has not yet publicly attributed the November 2026 outage to a faulty update or configuration change as of November 13, though it acknowledged investigating a network configuration change and applying patches; the 59% reflects Microsoft's pattern of eventually publishing root causes in post-incident reports due within five business days, combined with evidence that configuration changes were under investigation.