Will a streaming film win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards (Mar 14, 2027)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.7%$0.05
- No95.3%$0.95
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Forecast reasoning
Apple TV+ proved streaming can win Best Picture with "CODA," but current 2027 predictions favor theatrical film "The Odyssey" heavily, with Netflix's "La Bola Negra" and Amazon's "Project Hail Mary" trailing significantly despite strong festival performance. Streaming films have won only once in Oscar history, making another victory within 146 days unlikely despite mainstreaming into the race.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the film awarded Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, held strictly after 2026-10-11T07:16:57.463Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z, is a streaming-original film — i.e., a film whose primary, original release was on a subscription streaming platform (such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, or Disney+) rather than a wide theatrical release. - "No": Wins if the film awarded Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, held strictly after 2026-10-11T07:16:57.463Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z, is not a streaming-original film — i.e., its primary, original release was a wide theatrical release rather than on a subscription streaming platform. Clarifications: - A film is considered a "streaming film" if its primary, original debut was on a subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) streaming platform; a film that received a theatrical release first (even a limited one intended to qualify for awards) and was later made available on streaming is not considered a streaming film for this market. - If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony does not take place, is postponed beyond 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z, or no Best Picture winner is declared within that window, neither outcome is satisfied by those circumstances.
Mar 14, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC