Bank of Korea forecasts November inflation in the "late 2% range" (2.8%), down from October's 2.8% and September's 2.9%, with government petroleum price controls suppressing October by 0.8 percentage points. The 3.0% threshold requires a 0.2 percentage point increase despite recent downward momentum and BOK's expectation of upper-2% range outcomes. Core inflation holding at 2.8% suggests limited upside pressure for the headline rate to reach the 22% probability threshold.