Will Anthropic lay off more than half of its staff by 2030?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.0%$0.01
- No99.0%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Anthropic has grown from ~500 employees in 2023 to ~6,000+ by September 2026 with no layoffs, active hiring of 333 net employees in a recent 90-day period, and 608 open roles, making a 50% reduction by January 2030 highly unlikely absent major business collapse.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Anthropic announces and executes a reduction in force strictly after 2026-10-24T19:11:04.975Z and at or before 2030-01-01T13:00:00.000Z that results in the total number of employees laid off in a single event or a series of related events equaling more than 50% of Anthropic's total employee headcount at the time the layoff(s) begin. - "No": Wins if no such reduction in force exceeding 50% of Anthropic's total employee headcount occurs strictly after 2026-10-24T19:11:04.975Z and at or before 2030-01-01T13:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "More than half of its staff" means layoffs — involuntary terminations due to workforce reduction — totaling more than 50% of Anthropic's total full-time employee headcount at the start of the layoff event or series of related events; voluntary departures, contract expirations, and restructurings that do not involve involuntary terminations do not count toward this threshold. - If Anthropic undergoes a corporate restructuring, merger, or acquisition during the window, the headcount used is that of the legal successor entity carrying on Anthropic's business operations.
Jan 1, 2030, 5:00 AM UTC