Will London receive more than 5cm of rainfall on Oct 25, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes0.5%$0.01
- No99.5%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Most forecasts predict 0–5.3mm of rainfall on October 25, well below the 5cm threshold, with Met Office calling for sunny conditions and precipitation chances mostly below 10%. One historical data point recorded 3.6mm for that date, still far short of the requirement. The 5cm threshold is exceptionally high for London's typical daily rainfall.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total rainfall recorded at a representative London weather station (e.g. Heathrow, Northolt, or London Weather Centre) strictly exceeds 5 cm for the measurement window. - "No": Wins if the total rainfall recorded at a representative London weather station (e.g. Heathrow, Northolt, or London Weather Centre) is 5 cm or less for the measurement window. Clarifications: - The measurement window runs strictly after 2026-10-24T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z (i.e. the 25-hour period covering Oct 25, 2026 UTC). Rainfall totals are taken from official observed data, not forecasts.
Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC