Will Scotland become the 51st state of the US by January 1, 2029?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes0.0%$0.00
- No100.0%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Scotland's political focus remains on UK independence, not US statehood, with no credible proposals for joining America found in recent sources. Congressional approval and consent from both the UK and Scottish governments would be required, none of which show any serious movement toward this outcome in the 810 days remaining.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-09-30T16:02:19.175Z and at or before 2029-01-01T08:00:00.000Z, Scotland has been formally and legally admitted as the 51st state of the United States of America, with the full constitutional process completed — including an act of the U.S. Congress and presidential signature (or equivalent legal enactment) — and the admission is in effect. - "No": Wins if, at or before 2029-01-01T08:00:00.000Z, no such formal legal admission of Scotland as the 51st U.S. state has been completed and taken effect.
Jan 1, 2029, 8:00 AM UTC