Two-time defending champion Alcaraz missed 2026 with a wrist injury but returned to competition at the US Open and remains the favorite across major sportsbooks at 39% as of today. His 89% win rate at Roland-Garros and Grand Slam final record of 87.5% support the elevated odds, though ongoing recovery from injury and competition from defending champion Zverev and world No. 1 Sinner temper the probability to 25%.