Will Trump die in 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick5.3%$0.05
- No94.8%$0.95
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Recent May 2026 physical exams showed Trump in excellent health with strong cardiac function and a cardiac age 14 years younger than his chronological age, but October 2026 reports of unexplained severe health problems, unusual gait, and bruising have raised new concerns over the next 438 days.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Donald Trump ceases to be living, for any reason, strictly after 2026-12-31T22:00:00Z and at or before 2028-01-01T06:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if Donald Trump remains living at 2027-12-31T22:00:00Z. Clarifications: - The determination window is strictly after 2026-12-31T22:00:00Z and at or before 2027-12-31T22:00:00Z (the market's close time). "Yes" requires the event to occur within this window; "No" requires no such event to have occurred by the close time.
Dec 31, 2027, 10:00 PM UTC