Will Narendra Modi resign as Prime Minister before the next Indian general election (by May 2029)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes10.3%$0.10
- No89.8%$0.90
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Modi faces unprecedented youth protests over electoral changes and voter-roll revisions, with prediction markets pricing his removal before mid-2027 as remote. BJP leaders have firmly rejected retirement speculation, and Modi just marked 25 years as head of government with widespread congratulations. The 10% probability reflects base rates for sitting prime ministers resigning voluntarily over the 927-day period to May 2029.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Narendra Modi ceases to hold the office of Prime Minister of India for any reason strictly after 2026-10-08T10:17:20.205Z and at or before 2029-04-30T18:30:00.000Z, provided that such cessation occurs before the conclusion of the next Indian general election (scheduled by May 2029). - "No": Wins if Narendra Modi continues to hold the office of Prime Minister of India through 2029-04-30T18:30:00.000Z without having ceased to hold the position during the window defined above. Clarifications: - The qualifying window is strictly after 2026-10-08T10:17:20.205Z and at or before 2029-04-30T18:30:00.000Z. "Ceases to hold the position" includes any form of departure from the role — resignation, removal, loss of confidence vote, or any other mechanism — but excludes a caretaker or acting status that immediately precedes a re-appointment or re-confirmation following the next general election result.
Apr 30, 2029, 6:30 PM UTC