Will elliptic curve cryptography be broken by Oct 9, 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.9%$0.01
- No99.2%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Theoretical estimates show 256-bit ECC breakable with ~500k physical qubits in minutes, but experimental progress remains far behind: only 16-bit keys broken on real hardware as of September 2026. The 357-day timeline to October 2027 is too short for the engineering gap to close from current quantum capabilities to cryptographically-relevant attacks on production systems.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a peer-reviewed cryptographic break of elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) — meaning a demonstrated polynomial-time classical or quantum algorithm that solves the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) for standardized curves at their full security parameter sizes — is publicly disclosed and independently verified or acknowledged by a major cryptographic standards body (such as NIST, IETF, or IACR) strictly after 2026-10-09T09:24:42Z and at or before 2027-10-09T15:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if no such break is publicly disclosed and independently verified or acknowledged within the window described above. Clarifications: - "Broken" means a practical or theoretically decisive attack (not merely a side-channel, implementation flaw, or break of a weak/deprecated curve variant) that undermines the general security of ECDLP-based schemes (e.g., ECDSA, ECDH) at their standard security levels, as assessed by peer-reviewed research or an official statement from a recognized cryptographic standards body. - The window for all criteria runs strictly after 2026-10-09T09:24:42Z and at or before 2027-10-09T15:00:00Z.
Oct 9, 2027, 7:00 AM UTC