Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during Q4 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes36.0%$0.36
- No64.0%$0.64
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Forecast reasoning
Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by 20+ percentage points in Q3, but has underperformed since Q4 started, declining 9.5% versus Bitcoin's 0.96% through mid-October. Historical data shows Bitcoin averages 77% Q4 returns while Ethereum averages just 18.6%, a structural headwind that dominates the recent momentum reversal.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the percentage change in ETH-USD on Coinbase from 2026-09-30T18:30:00Z to 2026-12-31T18:30:00Z is strictly greater than the percentage change in BTC-USD on Coinbase over the same interval. - "No": Wins if the percentage change in ETH-USD on Coinbase from 2026-09-30T18:30:00Z to 2026-12-31T18:30:00Z is strictly less than or equal to the percentage change in BTC-USD on Coinbase over the same interval. Clarifications: - Percentage change for each asset is calculated as (price at 2026-12-31T18:30:00Z − price at 2026-09-30T18:30:00Z) / (price at 2026-09-30T18:30:00Z) × 100, using the spot USD price on Coinbase at each timestamp. - If the two percentage changes are exactly equal, "No" wins.
Dec 31, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC