Will more than 20% of Anthropic or OpenAI employees walk out before the end of March 2027 due to major safety concerns?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.6%$0.02
- No98.4%$0.98
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Forecast reasoning
While individual safety-focused departures have occurred—including Jacob Coxon's September 2026 resignation from Anthropic and David Robinson's October 2026 exit from OpenAI—no mass walkout has materialized, and the 20% threshold requires roughly 900 OpenAI or 500 Anthropic employees to leave in the next 168 days.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-03T02:13:27.983Z and at or before 2027-03-31T16:00:00.000Z, a coordinated walkout by employees of Anthropic, OpenAI, or both is publicly confirmed, and the total number of employees who participated equals or exceeds 20% of the relevant company's total headcount at the time the walkout begins (as reported by the company, credible media, or LinkedIn workforce estimates), with the stated or reported primary cause being AI safety concerns. - "No": Wins if no event satisfying the "Yes" criteria is confirmed to have occurred strictly after 2026-10-03T02:13:27.983Z and at or before 2027-03-31T16:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The 20% threshold is evaluated separately for each company: a qualifying event at Anthropic requires ≥20% of Anthropic's total employee headcount; a qualifying event at OpenAI requires ≥20% of OpenAI's total employee headcount. Either company alone satisfying the threshold is sufficient for "Yes" to win. - Headcount for the threshold calculation is the contemporaneous figure at the time the walkout begins, using the best publicly available estimate if no official figure is disclosed. - "Walkout" means employees physically or formally withdrawing their labor or presence in a coordinated, organized action distinct from individual resignations; individual departures or a series of uncoordinated resignations do not count.
Mar 31, 2027, 4:00 PM UTC