Will OpenAI release more than 3 models by the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick64.8%$0.65
- No35.3%$0.35
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
OpenAI released at least 8 distinct models between June and October 2026, far exceeding the threshold of more than 3 models by year-end. Evidence shows 11-13 releases documented through early October 2026 alone, with a historical cadence of approximately one model every 37 days suggesting additional releases remain likely before December 31, 2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if OpenAI publicly announces and releases more than 3 distinct new AI models on its official channels strictly after 2026-10-06T11:14:25.748Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the total number of distinct new AI models publicly announced and released by OpenAI on its official channels strictly after 2026-10-06T11:14:25.748Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z is 3 or fewer. Clarifications: - A "distinct new AI model" is a newly named model (e.g., GPT-X, o-series, Sora, etc.) first released to the public within the window; minor updates, fine-tunes, or versioned variants of an already-released model (e.g., a "-mini", "-turbo", or "-preview" suffix release following the base model's release within the same window) each count as separate models only if OpenAI markets them under a distinct model name with a dedicated release announcement; re-releases, API access expansions, or safety updates to previously released models do not count. - The window opens strictly after 2026-10-06T11:14:25.748Z and closes at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC