Yomif Kejelcha's 1:59:41 personal best gives the favorite a realistic path to break the 2:01:48 course record, but the threshold matches Sisay Lemma's exact 2023 winning time, and only 2 of the last 5 Valencia winners have finished that fast. The elite field depth—seven runners under 2:04:30—creates competition that historically favors times slightly slower than the record.