SpaceX plans Flight 15 in November 2026 to attempt catching both stages for the first time, with Elon Musk saying success is "more likely than not" on the first try. The booster has been caught 3 times in 4 attempts, but the upper stage has never been caught, making the dual catch significantly harder than either stage alone. The 19% probability reflects the technical difficulty of the untested ship catch despite near-term launch timing and regulatory approval expected.