Will the S&P 500 be higher at the end of 2026 than it is now?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes65.3%$0.65
- No34.8%$0.35
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
S&P 500 at $7,712 today needs just 0.25% gain by year-end to resolve Yes, a modest hurdle supported by analyst targets ranging from 7,900 to 8,000 and Goldman Sachs modeling 36% earnings growth for 2026. The index is already up 12.7% this year and near its October record high, though rate hike expectations shifting to December add near-term uncertainty.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) official closing price on the last U.S. trading day of 2026 (at or before 2027-01-01T05:59:59Z) is strictly greater than 7,712.57, the official closing price recorded on 2026-10-21 (the last close at or before 2026-10-21T16:16:13Z). - "No": Wins if the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) official closing price on the last U.S. trading day of 2026 (at or before 2027-01-01T05:59:59Z) is less than or equal to 7,712.57, the official closing price recorded on 2026-10-21 (the last close at or before 2026-10-21T16:16:13Z). Clarifications: - The S&P 500 Index closing price refers to the official end-of-regular-session price (ticker ^GSPC) as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices and widely reported by major financial data providers; intraday, after-hours, and futures prices are excluded. - If U.S. equity markets are closed on December 31, 2026, the last prior regular trading session's official closing price is used instead.
Jan 1, 2027, 5:59 AM UTC