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Will Japan's House of Councillors pass the 消費税減税・支援金法案 in a plenary vote by Dec 9, 2026, per sangiin.go.jp?

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Delphi’s forecast

  • Yesyour pick31.0%$0.31
  • No69.0%$0.69
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Forecast reasoning

The bill passed the House of Representatives on November 6 and entered House of Councillors deliberations on November 11, leaving 28 days until the December 9 deadline. The ruling coalition lacks a majority by 2 seats even with conservative party support, requiring opposition party backing from the Democratic Party for the People or Komeito to pass. Four LDP members including former PM Ishiba abstained over fiscal concerns, signaling internal resistance that may complicate securing the necessary