Will Vučić's camp win Serbia's snap parliamentary election on Oct 25, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes28.5%$0.29
- No71.5%$0.71
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Forecast reasoning
Polls show Vučić's United Serbia trailing or nearly tied with the Student List, with recent surveys ranging from 41.7% to 48.6% support versus the opposition's 37.1% to 44.4%. A Monte Carlo simulation estimated only 48% odds of Vučić securing the 126-seat majority needed to win, while seat projections show his coalition potentially falling short of that threshold.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, in the October 25, 2026 Serbian snap parliamentary election, the electoral list or coalition led by or officially affiliated with Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is certified by the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) as having won more seats in the National Assembly than any other single competing list or coalition, based on official results published strictly after 2026-09-30T18:48:21.246Z and at or before the market's settlement time. - "No": Wins if, in the October 25, 2026 Serbian snap parliamentary election, no electoral list or coalition led by or officially affiliated with Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) finishes first in seats won according to official RIK-certified results published strictly after 2026-09-30T18:48:21.246Z and at or before the market's settlement time, or if the election is officially cancelled or indefinitely postponed within that window. Clarifications: - "Vučić's camp" refers to any electoral list or coalition whose ballot carrier is Aleksandar Vučić or that is formally led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), as registered with RIK for the October 25, 2026 election. - "Winning" means finishing first by number of mandates (seats) allocated in the National Assembly, as certified in the official RIK results announcement; in the event of a tie for first place, "Yes" does not resolve as a win.
Oct 24, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC