Will Raphinha receive a yellow card vs Real Madrid on Oct 25, 2026 (regular + stoppage time only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes18.8%$0.19
- No81.3%$0.81
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Forecast reasoning
Raphinha has not been carded in his last 10 games this season and commits only 0.30 fouls per game, but referee Juan Munuera averages 3.5 cards per game and Raphinha received a yellow in the previous Clásico, keeping the probability modest at 19%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Raphinha is shown at least one yellow card by the referee during regular time or stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalty shootout) of the La Liga match between Barcelona and Real Madrid, with the match having kicked off strictly after 2026-10-25T14:22:21.602Z and concluding at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Raphinha receives no yellow card during regular time or stoppage time of that same match, or if Raphinha does not appear in the match (not in the starting lineup and not introduced as a substitute) during that period. Clarifications: - Only bookings issued during the 90 minutes of regulation plus any added stoppage time count; cards shown during extra time, a penalty shootout, or after the final whistle of regulation are excluded. - If the match is postponed, abandoned, or not played within the settlement window (strictly after 2026-10-25T14:22:21.602Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z), neither condition above is satisfied within the window.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC