Will the Bank of Canada raise its overnight rate target at its Dec 9, 2026 announcement?
EconomicsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick34.3%$0.34
- No65.8%$0.66
Forecast only. Not tradable.
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Forecast reasoning
Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) price a 34-36% hike probability, while overnight index swaps show 53-60%, creating divergence that this market resolves toward the lower prediction market consensus. A Bank of Canada survey median expects the rate to hold at 2.50% in December before hiking to 2.75% in March 2027.
