Will humans be on Mars by 2034?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.6%$0.01
- No99.4%$0.99
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
SpaceX shifted focus to lunar missions in early 2026, with no crewed Mars flight scheduled and the next launch window not until late 2028-early 2029. NASA's earliest feasible crewed Mars arrival is 2035, requiring budget increases NASA says must "double or triple," making a landing by end-2034 extremely unlikely.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one human has physically arrived on the Martian surface as part of a crewed Mars mission, with the arrival occurring strictly after 2026-10-07T19:55:56.190Z and at or before 2034-12-31T23:00:00.000Z, as confirmed by credible reporting from official space agencies or major news organizations. - "No": Wins if no such crewed Mars surface arrival has been confirmed to have occurred strictly after 2026-10-07T19:55:56.190Z and at or before 2034-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Humans on Mars" is satisfied by any crewed mission in which at least one human physically reaches the Martian surface; an uncrewed or robotic mission alone does not satisfy this condition, and a Mars orbit insertion without a surface landing does not satisfy this condition. - The qualifying window opens strictly after 2026-10-07T19:55:56.190Z and closes at or before 2034-12-31T23:00:00.000Z; arrival must occur within this interval to count.
Dec 31, 2034, 11:00 PM UTC