Will Congress pass a Daylight Saving Time bill by Nov 1, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.8%$0.01
- No99.3%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated on October 6 there is "no clear path forward" for the bill despite House passage in July and Trump's support. The Senate has no floor vote scheduled and won't resume regular business until November 9, eight days after the deadline.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if any Daylight Saving Time bill (including but not limited to the Sunshine Protection Act, H.R. 139) is passed by both chambers of Congress AND signed into law by the President strictly after 2026-10-07T15:22:56.642Z and at or before 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no Daylight Saving Time bill completes full enactment (passage by both the House and Senate and presidential signature) within the window strictly after 2026-10-07T15:22:56.642Z and at or before 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Pass" requires both chambers of Congress to approve the same bill and the President to sign it into law; passage by only one chamber does not satisfy the "Yes" condition. - The window for qualifying enactment is strictly after 2026-10-07T15:22:56.642Z and at or before 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z.
Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC