Will the New York Mets sign Tarik Skubal in free agency?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes20.8%$0.21
- No79.3%$0.79
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
The Dodgers are favored at 59% to sign Skubal, and the Mets prefer short-term deals while Skubal likely seeks long-term guaranteed money, creating a structural mismatch. The Mets remain non-committal as of October 8, and Skubal has expressed desire to return to Detroit, further reducing their odds over the next 171 days of free agency negotiations.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the New York Mets officially announce the signing of Tarik Skubal to a contract strictly after 2026-09-30T18:08:54.449Z and at or before 2027-03-31T22:00:00.000Z, as confirmed by credible MLB reporting or an official team or league announcement. - "No": Wins if no official signing of Tarik Skubal by the New York Mets is announced strictly after 2026-09-30T18:08:54.449Z and at or before 2027-03-31T22:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A "signing" requires a confirmed contract agreement between Skubal and the Mets; a trade, a letter of intent, or reported negotiations without an official announcement do not qualify. - If Skubal signs with any team other than the Mets, or remains unsigned, within the window, "No" wins.
Mar 31, 2027, 10:00 PM UTC