Will Emily Dawn Long win the CFDA Google American Emerging Designer of the Year award at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick5.8%$0.06
- No94.3%$0.94
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Forecast reasoning
Emily Dawn Long is one of five nominees for the Google American Emerging Designer of the Year award, with voting closing October 21 and the ceremony on November 2. The 6% probability reflects a one-in-five base rate adjusted downward, suggesting modest differentiation among the five equally-publicized nominees.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Emily Dawn Long is announced as the winner of the Google Shopping American Emerging Designer of the Year award at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards, with the announcement occurring strictly after 2026-10-16T14:29:35.295Z and at or before 2026-11-02T13:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the Google Shopping American Emerging Designer of the Year award at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards is announced within the same window and the winner is someone other than Emily Dawn Long, or if the award is confirmed cancelled or not presented. Clarifications: - The 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards ceremony is scheduled for November 2, 2026, at the American Museum of Natural History, New York. The winner is determined by the official announcement made at or in connection with the ceremony.
Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC