Will the US unemployment rate rise in November 2026 (Oct report)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick35.0%$0.35
- No65.0%$0.65
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Forecast reasoning
The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in September 2026 and forecasters project it will remain at 4.2% in October, making a rise unlikely. Initial jobless claims have ticked slightly higher but remain near historical lows, offering limited signal of deterioration over the next 16 days before the report.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation report for October 2026, released strictly after 2026-10-21T21:51:07.019Z and at or before 2026-11-06T21:30:00.000Z, shows a seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate strictly higher than the September 2026 figure published in that same report. - "No": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation report for October 2026, released strictly after 2026-10-21T21:51:07.019Z and at or before 2026-11-06T21:30:00.000Z, shows a seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate equal to or lower than the September 2026 figure published in that same report. Clarifications: - The comparison is between the October 2026 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and the September 2026 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate as both appear in the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 (scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 08:30 ET / 13:30 UTC); subsequent revisions are not considered. - If the BLS does not publish the October 2026 Employment Situation report within the window (i.e., at or before 2026-11-06T21:30:00.000Z), neither condition is satisfied.
Nov 6, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC