Will voter turnout in the 2026 Israeli general election break records?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick15.5%$0.16
- No84.5%$0.85
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Forecast reasoning
Turnout reached 55.7% by 4 p.m., the highest at that hour since tracking began, but must exceed 1949's record 85.8% final turnout to resolve Yes. With polls closing in 7 days and historical recent elections ranging 67-72%, the gap to break the all-time record remains substantial despite today's strong early pace.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the official final national voter turnout percentage for the 2026 Israeli general election, as certified by the Israeli Central Elections Committee strictly after 2026-10-27T12:48:49.568Z and at or before 2026-11-04T06:00:00.000Z, exceeds the highest voter turnout percentage recorded in any previous Israeli general election (the all-time record). - "No": Wins if the official final national voter turnout percentage for the 2026 Israeli general election, as certified by the Israeli Central Elections Committee strictly after 2026-10-27T12:48:49.568Z and at or before 2026-11-04T06:00:00.000Z, does not exceed the highest voter turnout percentage recorded in any previous Israeli general election (the all-time record). Clarifications: - "Breaking records" means the certified final turnout percentage is strictly greater than the highest turnout ever recorded in any prior Israeli general (Knesset) election. The all-time record is approximately 78.49%, set in the 1981 Israeli general election; the exact figure as documented in official or widely recognised historical sources should be used for comparison. - Turnout is measured as the percentage of eligible voters who cast a valid or invalid ballot, as reported in the Central Elections Committee's official final results publication.
Nov 3, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC