Will US inflation (CPI YoY) cool in October 2026 (released Nov 10, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick24.0%$0.24
- No76.0%$0.76
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Forecast reasoning
September's hot 3.7% YoY reading and 0.6% monthly gain make October cooling unlikely despite forecasts for a 0.3% monthly slowdown. Market consensus clusters around 0.2-0.4% monthly inflation, with most scenarios keeping YoY rates flat or higher rather than declining from September's elevated level.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI-U all-items 12-month percent change (not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as published in the official BLS CPI news release released strictly after 2026-10-21T11:42:50.391Z and at or before 2026-11-10T13:00:00.000Z, is strictly less than the September 2026 reading of 3.7%. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI-U all-items 12-month percent change (not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as published in the official BLS CPI news release released strictly after 2026-10-21T11:42:50.391Z and at or before 2026-11-10T13:00:00.000Z, is greater than or equal to 3.7%. Clarifications: - "Cooling" means the October 2026 CPI-U all-items 12-month percent change (not seasonally adjusted) is strictly lower than the September 2026 figure of 3.7%, as reported in the initial BLS release. Subsequent revisions are not considered. - If the BLS October 2026 CPI news release is not published by 2026-11-10T13:00:00.000Z, the market cannot be resolved under these criteria.
Nov 10, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC