Will the high temperature in Lisbon exceed 25°C on Oct 20, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes3.3%$0.03
- No96.8%$0.97
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Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts for October 20 predict a high of 19-20°C, well below the 25°C threshold. Historical data shows October 20 averages 22°C in Lisbon, making the 3% probability reflect the small chance forecasts are significantly wrong.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the observed daily high temperature in Lisbon strictly after 2026-10-19T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-20T23:00:00Z exceeds 25°C (i.e., is greater than 25.0°C). - "No": Wins if the observed daily high temperature in Lisbon strictly after 2026-10-19T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-20T23:00:00Z is 25°C or below (i.e., does not exceed 25.0°C). Clarifications: - The daily high temperature is the maximum recorded air temperature (in °C) at Lisbon Humberto Delgado Airport (ICAO: LPPT), as reported in official station observations for October 20, 2026 (UTC).
Oct 20, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC