Historical data shows snow fell on Christmas Day in NYC roughly 12-15% of the time over a century, while NOAA's 1991-2020 climate normals put measurable snowfall at 7.9% probability. The December 25, 2026 forecast shows temperatures near 30°F with 60% precipitation chance, but the winter is predicted cool with insignificant precipitation overall, keeping the probability near the lower end of historical norms.