Which party will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the Nov 3, 2026 election?
Delphi’s forecast
- Democrats83.0%$0.83
- Republicans17.1%$0.17
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Forecast reasoning
Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8 points in recent polling, with multiple forecasting models showing 79-86% win probability as of October 10-11. President Trump's 30% approval rating and voter dissatisfaction with the economy mirror historical patterns where the president's party loses House seats in midterms, though Democrats only need a net gain of 3 seats to flip the chamber from the current 218-214 Republican majority.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Democrats": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-01T09:56:06.666Z and at or before the market's settlement time, the Associated Press has called enough U.S. House races to project that Democrats will hold 218 or more seats in the 120th Congress following the November 3, 2026 general election. - "Republicans": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-01T09:56:06.666Z and at or before the market's settlement time, the Associated Press has called enough U.S. House races to project that Republicans will hold 218 or more seats in the 120th Congress following the November 3, 2026 general election. Clarifications: - "Control" means a party is projected to hold at least 218 of the 435 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. If the AP has not yet issued a House-control projection by the market's settlement time, the winner is determined by whichever party has been called to hold 218 or more seats based on cumulative AP race calls across all 435 districts as of that time.
Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC