“Will the daily max temp at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) be ≥40°F on Dec 5, 2026, per NWS Chicago?” on Delphi

Will the daily max temp at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) be ≥40°F on Dec 5, 2026, per NWS Chicago?

WeatherForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes, ≥40°Fyour pick43.8%$0.44
No, below 40°F56.3%$0.56

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

The 44% probability reflects Chicago O'Hare's December 5 climate normal of 39.8°F, just below the 40°F threshold, combined with mixed forecasts ranging from 33°F to 41°F and historical data showing the threshold met in 53% of recorded years. Most current forecast models predict temperatures in the mid-30s, pulling the probability below the historical base rate.