Will there be a new pope before 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.3%$0.01
- No98.8%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Pope Leo XIV was elected in May 2025 and remains in office as of October 2026, having recently recovered from lung cancer surgery with no indication of resignation or death before the January 2027 deadline. A new pope would require his death or resignation within 74 days, an unlikely outcome given his successful recovery and resumed papal duties.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a new pope — meaning a successor to the pope who held office at 2026-10-13T21:16:02.922Z — is formally elected by the College of Cardinals and takes office strictly after 2026-10-13T21:16:02.922Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such papal succession occurs within that interval; that is, the same pope who held office at 2026-10-13T21:16:02.922Z remains the reigning pontiff at 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Takes office" means the moment the newly elected pope accepts his election (the declaration of "Accepto") as announced by the Holy See, which is the canonical point at which a new pontificate begins, regardless of whether an inauguration Mass has yet occurred.
Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC