Will Zane Li win the Google American Emerging Designer of the Year at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes3.3%$0.03
- No96.7%$0.97
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Forecast reasoning
Zane Li is one of five nominees for Google American Emerging Designer of the Year at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards, with voting closing October 23 and the ceremony on November 2. The 3% probability reflects a 20% base rate for winning among five equal nominees, adjusted down based on available industry recognition signals and competitive strength of other nominees.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Zane Li is announced as the winner of the Google Shopping American Emerging Designer of the Year award at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards ceremony, with the announcement occurring strictly after 2026-10-16T15:20:19.300Z and at or before 2026-11-02T13:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the Google Shopping American Emerging Designer of the Year award at the 2026 CFDA Fashion Awards ceremony is awarded to any person other than Zane Li, with the announcement occurring strictly after 2026-10-16T15:20:19.300Z and at or before 2026-11-02T13:00:00.000Z.
Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC