Will it rain more than 5 inches in New York City between Oct 23 and Nov 2, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.5%$0.02
- No98.5%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts predict 0.25 to 1.78 inches of total precipitation across the Oct 23-Nov 2 period, well below the 5-inch threshold. The wettest individual days (Nov 1-2) are each forecast at under 1.7 inches, making accumulation to 5 inches extremely unlikely given the dry forecast for Oct 23-30.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total accumulated liquid precipitation recorded at the NWS Central Park, NY (KNYC) observation station strictly after 2026-10-23T10:06:46Z and at or before 2026-11-02T19:06:46Z exceeds 5.00 inches. - "No": Wins if the total accumulated liquid precipitation recorded at the NWS Central Park, NY (KNYC) observation station strictly after 2026-10-23T10:06:46Z and at or before 2026-11-02T19:06:46Z is 5.00 inches or less. Clarifications: - Precipitation totals are taken from the official NWS daily/monthly climatological records for Central Park (KNYC), summing all reported liquid-equivalent precipitation within the specified window. Snow or frozen precipitation is counted as its liquid-water equivalent.
Nov 2, 2026, 11:06 AM UTC